Resource World Magazine

26 www.resourceworld.com D E C E M B E R / J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 9 Auto makers are actively locking in raw materials to increase margins in EVs. Leyland predicts a structural deficit for lithium will be reached in 2026, assum- ing most current projects are funded, with some substitution risk from silicon, solid state and manufacturing advances. Julia Atwood, Team Leader, Advanced Materials, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, discussed stationary storage. She says the demand profile for energy is 'peakier' when such items as solar panels go offline at night, and this presents an opportunity for energy storage, for which the demand is rising. She expects energy storage systems to reach 120 gigawatts by 2030 in the US, China and Japan. South Korea became the largest energy storage systems consumer in 2017 and 2018. Atwood commented that costs are falling across the board more rapidly than expected, and this makes stationary storage batteries competitive. And new applications such as EV battery charging systems are emerging. She noted, though, that storage is still a small piece of the market. For metals, this means more lithium, cobalt and nickel will continue as sources. Robert Privette, Business Development Manager, North America, of Umicore [UMICF-OTC; UMI-EBR], says cathode material values will show double-digit growth over the next 10+ years. Established raw material sourcing is a requirement and he predicts significant impacts on raw material markets, including nickel. He says ethical sourcing is non-negotiable. Clean, sustainable practices throughout the supply chain and "closed-loop" materials recycling are mandatory. "Putting out pollution in a battery plant does not make it green tech- nology," says Privette. Anthony Tse, Managing Director and CEO of Galaxy Resources Ltd. [GXY-ASX], said rapid growth in lithium demand is driven beyond normal consumer applica- tions such as transportation and storage to what he calls "disruptive consump- tion" of lithium-ion [power storage]. He said key demand drivers for his company are EVs, energy storage systems, and con- sumer electronics. He expects a global EV penetration forecast to reach 15% by 2025, underwritten by rapidly increasing consumer demand and mandatory govern- ment policies globally. He expects 5x the lithium-ion battery demand by 2020. Tse said energy storage systems have emerged as a key resource in managing grid stability and the growing penetration of renewable energy. He says the storage system con- sumption potential may outpace EVs in the medium term as well as consumer electron- ics, driven by a high level of obsolescence and new growth in adoption across non- computing applications. He said the future demand for cathode material will comprise a wide range of chemistries, given per- formance and technical challenges (for example, cost and safety). Speaking about consumer electron- ics, Jeff Bruce, Director of Battery Technologies at Microsoft Corporation [MSFT-NASDAQ], said that on the IT side, demand will be flat for batteries. For lap- top use, batteries are a three-year product; no one wants a 10-year old laptop. Henrik Fisker, Chairman and CEO at Fisker Inc., envisions the biggest change in the transportation industry since we moved from the horse to the internal combustion engine. He expects that by 2025 traditional car companies will not exist. Instead, what Fisker calls mobility companies will provide transportation vehicles. To solve congestion and emissions problems, mobility compa- nies will manufacture autonomous shuttles powered by EVs that would hook together for peak travel times and set routes, then detach into individual shuttles to get pas- sengers closer to their destinations during off-peak times. He envisions closed cam- puses, such as airports would be a good starting use case for these shuttles. He says consumer demand is shifting and young people are now more likely to call for a ride than to buy their own car; families will still want cars, but they will want "emotional, premium cool cars," and the aging population will want some autonomous features, for example ease of use. Fisker envisions that private cars will BATTERY MINERALS A prototype of the 2020 Tesla Roadster. The four-seater vehicle will accelerate 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds. With its 200 kWh battery pack, the car has a range of 620 miles. Photo courtesy Tesla, Inc.

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