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18 www.resourceworld.com D E C E M B E R / J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 9 OUTLOOK 2019 tries around the globe. Looking forward, there are expectations that the electric vehicle boom and demand for renewable energy will increase need for the red metal. LEAD AND ZINC Predominantly used in lead-acid batteries for the automotive industry, production of lead is mostly as a by-product of zinc min- ing and has been declining following the closure of large depleted zinc mines. According to a recent report by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), Chinese lead usage is expected to fall by 0.6% this year as a consequence of increased penetration by lithium-ion batteries and a slower growth in the auto- motive sector. A further 1.3% fall in usage in China is anticipated in 2019. ILZSG forecast that global zinc demand is set to rise by 0.4% in 2018 to 13.74 million tons (MT) and by 1.1% in 2019 (up to 13.88 MT). In China, zinc demand is projected to fall 0.5% this year, while increasing just 0.8% in 2019. On the supply side, zinc mine production is projected to rise 2% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019. The S&P lowered its zinc forecast for this year and next, from an assumed US $3,200/tonne for the rest of 2018 to US $2,800/tonne, and from US $3,000/tonne to US $2,800/tonne in 2019.They believe zinc prices at US $2,800/tonne are close to the marginal cost of production for about 75% of zinc producers globally. PLATINUM & PALLADIUM Platinum recently hit a 10-year low and many analysts think the bottom has finally been reached. Platinum is currently trad- ing below US $900/oz but a recent survey by Reuters analysts and traders revealed an average price forecast for platinum of US $1,039/oz by the end of 2018. The supply/demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium differ strongly, which has been reflected in the price move- ments of both metals. Historically, platinum was the more expensive metal, but this changed last autumn. The main industrial demand for both is auto catalysts, and this has fallen for platinum (used in diesel- powered vehicles) but risen for palladium (used in gasoline-powered cars). There is increasing use of palladium in China which probably accounts for its price rise. NICKEL The growth in nickel demand from the stainless steel and electrical vehicle (EV) sectors was the main topic of dis- cussion at the Anglo American nickel seminar in Shanghai in September this year. Increasing sales of EVs since 2012, in response to global subsidies for the production of EVs with a longer driving range, are said to have resulted in acceler- ated nickel-containing battery output. There has been substantial growth in new nickel applications, such as EV, and existing nickel application in stainless steel, with the share of nickel contained in stainless steel and usage of nickel in batter- ies rising since 2007. But after a bull run in the past year tak- ing it from US $4/lb to a high of just over US $7/lb, the nickel price has now succumbed to weakness again on the back of global trade fears, declining recently to around US $5/lb. However, this has not altered the bullish longer term outlook for nickel as stainless steel production – currently nearly 80% of total demand for nickel – is expected to stay solid over the coming years and a booming demand from the electric vehicle battery market is set to fundamen- tally alter the structure of the industry. Finding enough nickel raw materials for battery producers "is likely to be a considerable challenge post-2025" accord- ing to Wood MacKenzie and the firm has a price prediction to match the anticipated supply problem saying that the nickel mar- ket starts to need additional nickel from unidentified resources in 2023 and they envisage prices reaching an annual average peak of US $13/lb by 2022. MOLYBDENUM According to the International Moly- bdenum Association, 80% of the molybdenum that is mined each year is used to make stainless steel, cast iron and superalloys. Prices for the metal are at nearly US $13/lb, the highest since 2014 and more than double compared to levels seen in Vanadium