Resource World Magazine

94 www.resourceworld.com F E B R U A R Y / M A R C H 2 0 2 0 Epilogue by David Duval M ost minority governments in Canada last less than two years. For the current government to remain in power longer, the Liberals will need the support of the left-leaning Bloc Québecois, the NDP, and the Green Party – arguably bad news for Canada's export economy. Bad news not only for the oil and gas sector but also for minerals and prob- ably soft commodities as well. For Canada's oil and gas industry, final- izing construction of the Kinder Morgan pipeline, along with a positive deci- sion by the Federal government for Teck Resources' Frontier oil sands project, will be critical to the industry's growth and long-term sustainability. Frontier is a multi-billion dollar oil sands project located between Fort McMurray and Fort Chipewyan in northeast Alberta. It is currently advancing through a joint Federal- Provincial review process towards a February 2020 approval deadline. "If this project does not proceed, it would be a clear indication that there is no way forward for this country's largest natural resource," Alberta Premier, Jason Kenney, said last December. The mammoth truck-and-shovel operation will consist of surface mining operations, a processing plant, tailings facilities, water management facilities, associated infrastructure and support facil- ities. Teck has reached agreements with all 14 Indigenous communities in the broader Frontier project area and, if approved, the mine is estimated to employ up to 7,000 workers during construction and up to 2,500 workers during operation. At full production, Frontier will produce 260,000 barrels/day of bitumen, which will need to be transported to markets via pipe- line. Typical of most oil sands operations, Frontier has a long mine life – about 41 years – generating long-term employment and economic benefits for generations of Canadians. It is estimated that Frontier will contribute about $55 billion in provincial royalties and taxes and $12 billion in federal income and capital taxes. According to Teck, Frontier "will be among the lowest GHG-intensity oil sands operations and will have a lower carbon intensity than about half of the oil cur- rently refined in the United States." With the deadline approaching for approval or rejection, environmental groups are orchestrating resistance not just to Frontier but to virtually all resource- related investment in Canada. Among the celebrities opposing Frontier are actors Jane Fonda and Joaquim Phoenix – both of whom are well known climate change activists. Some would argue they don't score particularly high on the credibility index – especially Fonda who is notorious for her extreme left-wing political views and, in fact, had her picture taken with a North Vietnamese anti-aircraft crew who were tasked with shooting down US air- craft during the Vietnam War. Joaquim Phoenix recently apologized for taking a plane to a Hollywood awards event but promised to make up for it by consuming less food to reduce his carbon footprint. Despite their obvious eccentrici- ties, people like them can influence public support and impact government policy decisions on critical resource projects. An important issue regarding the Federal government's approval of Frontier is the fact it's a signatory to the Paris Agreement whereby Canada is committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 30% below 2005 lev- els by 2030. That the federal government would even pay lip service to the Paris agreement is concerning, even more so considering that most of the strongest econ- omies signing the accord have or are in the process of reneging on their commitments. The level of cognitive dissonance within government concerning Canada's ability to achieve its Paris Agreement goals is noth- ing short of astounding. Foremost among its efforts to meet its commitment is the implementation of carbon taxes which will have no impact whatsoever on cli- mate in Canada but will increase the cost of home heating and basic foodstuffs for all Canadians. It is estimated that Canada will need to impose a total carbon tax of $102 per tonne if it wishes to meet its Paris Agreement emissions target by 2030. Meanwhile, the government is propos- ing to massively increase immigration levels over the next few years, adding additional pressure to the job market, infrastructure and the nation's social services, includ- ing health care. Each of these immigrants will have a carbon footprint, one that will be exacerbated by a variety of fac- tors, including Canada's frigid climate. In his 2018 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, the country's immigration minister, Ahmed Hussen, revealed plans to admit as many as 1,080,000 new permanent residents between 2019 and 2021 with the upper target for 2021 being 370,000. Rather than grow the existing economy and promoting job growth by developing the nation's resources, the federal govern- ment supports the notion that a nation's economy can only be grown through immigration. The country's reported unemployment rate of 5.9% last December – among the highest of any Western econ- omy – probably suggests otherwise. n Minority government probably spells bad news for Canada's resource sector

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