Issue link: http://resourceworld.uberflip.com/i/229125
oversupply in thermal coal markets, specifically from Australia, Indonesia, Columbia and South Africa. Met coal additions would primarily be limited to Australia. According to Bloomberg, a total of 31 million tonnes of incremental thermal coal supply may reach the market next year, representing 3.5% of total expected 2013 seaborne trade. These additions will mainly come from Australia and Colombia. While supply additions in 2014 may be lower than those this past year, it is expected that persistently high inventory may keep prices capped. A total of 13 million tonnes of new coking coal supply might hit the market next year, representing 4.5% of total expected 2013 seaborne trade. This new supply will be sourced from Australia as infrastructure limitations keep Mozambique from adding significant tonnages. Analysts predict that these supply gains will be mitigated by strong demand from China and reduced flows from the US. Chinese coking coal import growth should remain strong in 2014, having accounted for 90% of the incremental growth in Australian exports this year. Chinese thermal coal (thermal plus lignite) import growth is anticipated to be depressed next year as low arbitrage levels discourage utilities and traders. In addition, improvements to China's railway infrastructure and the development of power lines from inland regions to the coastal demand centres may reduce the need for imports. Bloomberg analyst, Andrew Cosgrove, speculates that that increased gas to coal switching, coupled with lower international coal prices could drive US exports down in 2014. If there is a switch back to coal, this may leave less tonnage available for exports. Chinese power plant coal inventories are currently high which is similar to historical highs reached this time last year. Indian power plant inventories are 120% higher than last year. POTASH Scotiabank Economics expect that potash prices will likely drift down over the balance of the year, but the global cost curve indicates that most of the decline has already occurred and prices are near bottom (at least on a sustainable basis). Belarus would like to restore its cartellike marketing partnership with Uralkali. That sales alliance fell apart in July and accounts for 40% of world supply. If a similar partnership could be reformed, it could propel potash prices out of their brutal slump. Uralkali's announcement that it would maximize sales at the expense of prices had the predictable effect of delaying purchases as well as inventory building and pushed potash prices to the floor of US $300 per tonne. PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM Both Barclays PLC and Johnson Matthey PLC agree that the precious metals used in catalytic converters will be in a shortage in 2014. According to the mean of eight estimates, by the most accurate analysts tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years, platinum will average US $1,635/oz by the fourth quarter of 2014 and palladium will northcliffresources.com Northcliff Resources Ltd. (TSX: NCF) holds a controlling interest in and is the operator of the advancedstage Sisson Tungsten-Molybdenum Project, located in New Brunswick on Canada's east coast. Sisson has excellent potential to be a near-term metal producer, with the capability to meet increasing tungsten demand from North American, European and Japanese markets. ́ ́ ́ ́ Interim financing secured Feasibility completed Long life operation (27 years) Low cost, open pit mining ́ ́ ́ ́ Conventional processing Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) Plant EIA submitted Construction targeted for 2014 NORTHCLIFF RESOURCES LTD. 15th Floor, 1040 W. Georgia St., Vancouver, BC V6E 4H1 Canada Tel: +1.604.684.6365 Toll Free: 1.800.667.2114 Email: info@hdimining.com DECEMBER/JANUARY 2014 RW December 2013.indd 9 TSX: NCF www.resourceworld.com 9 12/11/2013 6:11 PM