Resource World Magazine

These pressures come from the belief that climate change is, in fact, caused totally through emissions of CO2 by mankind into the atmosphere. Though I personally believe that the degree to which mankind is responsible is open to debate, the fact is, that trend downward is in place." Drolet said that over 80% of electricity in China comes from coal-fired power plants. "They are bringing a new coal-fired unit on line every month," said Drolet. "Many poorer countries have had no choice but to use coal to fuel economic growth. If you look at overall trends in the world, the use of coal is increasing, not decreasing." There are some emerging, new technologies that can increase the efficiency at a coal-fired station and reduce some of the pollutants that are in coal, noted Drolet. One such new innovation in coal drying, hydroelectric power. Geothermal will need some breakthroughs in technology to become a system of worldwide scale. One company, AltaRock Energy of the US is an example," said Drolet. "Unfortunately, hydroelectric power installations from new dams and Runof-River (ROR) stations will be modest," said Drolet. "Most major rivers have been harnessed. I do see some localized ROR increases in the near to middle term." Drolet remarked that nuclear power stands relatively alone as the most scalable baseload power system available. "I believe that with renewed attention to developing smaller more passively safe and economically viable nuclear reactor systems that, over the next three decades, nuclear energy will re-emerge as the dominant baseload power system of choice," said Drolet. "There are only three forms of true baseload power available to society – nuclear, hydroelectric and geothermal." pollution and maintenance improvements is being brought to market by MicroCoal Technologies Inc. of Vancouver, Canada. "However, in another area of coal technology R&D, we see a different picture," said Drolet. "If we look at the variety of new techniques being explored for full Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) of CO2 from coal-fired power plants, you realize that we have a long way to go to discover which techniques will be economically viable or even possible. Most analysis, however, has shown that the many varieties of systems being explored today would add between a 30% to 50% cost increase in the power price from the coal plants." Drolet's conclusion is that he doesn't feel that clean coal, in the purest sense of the word, (no CO2 emissions) will be economically viable in the near future. There are only three forms of true baseload power available to society – nuclear, hydroelectric and geothermal, Drolet concludes. "If we look at the issue of scale, then two forms standout: nuclear and DECEMBER/JANUARY 2014 RW December 2013.indd 37 He observes that some 60 new large reactors that are called Gen 3+ designs are either under construction or planned. Most of those will be installed in China, Russia, India, United Arab Emirates, the US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. A smaller number of additions will be added in the UK, Turkey, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Taiwan. Drolet doesn't see a supply shortage for uranium in the next couple of years. "With the closure of some 54 reactors in Japan and 10 (so far) in Germany, with a further five in Switzerland to come, current levels of production and inventory are, in my view, basically adequate throughout the remainder of 2013 and into approximately Q1 of 2015." However, Drolet says that with the massive reactor building programs underway in China and other countries, the current use rate of approximately 150 million lbs of uranium yellow cake (U3O8) per year, will then need to be augmented in later 2015 and beyond." "This current slow period with its low spot and long term (LT) prices should be viewed as an opportunity, a time to invest in new exploration and development," said Drolet. "I do see the U3O8 price gradually trending up over the next few years (spot first, then LT to follow)," said Drolet. "The key issue to follow over the next few years is the rate at which Japanese reactors return to power. My forecast, based on discussions with utilities in Japan and with their government and others, is that about onehalf of the shutdown reactors will come back on-line within five years." In an open democratic country, debate will always rage on both sides of any issue. Drolet points out that this is normally a healthy process as long as it leads to a conclusion that dynamic industrial and governmental leadership use to implement change. "Unfortunately," noted Drolet, "what has occurred over the last 40 to 50 years is that there has been the advent of a group called the 'single issue group'. He said that one example may be those that argue that nothing but the total demise of coal-fired power can save the world from dramatic climate change. Other examples include those that think that renewable energy is the one and only thing that we should install going forward. Even others argue for a dramatically higher nuclear energy component. " a person who has worked in the As large utility industry and in the free markets areas of energy my whole career, I have learned to believe in balance," said Drolet. He describes it as, " balance of fuel A sources, a balance of countries from which the fuels may come and a balance of forms of converting that fuel into useful energy, i.e. electricity." "Just like in your investment portfolio, where you should have a variety of sectors to put your money into, the same goes for energy in society," Drolet said. "I will argue that we need a wide variety of energy sources and energy conversion systems. It is only in that sort of world that reliable supplies and stable energy prices can emerge because at any one time there can be problems with any one of the energy systems. No backup – then there is obviously a big problem." n www.resourceworld.com 37 12/11/2013 6:12 PM

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