Issue link: http://resourceworld.uberflip.com/i/612354
10 www.resourceworld.com d e c e m b e r / j a n u a r y 2 0 1 6 in The GLoBaL CommodiTies seCTor, the term metal fatigue is taking on a whole new meaning as concerns about economic growth in China continues to weigh. With one or two exceptions, prices have been down for so long that some mining executives have given up on predicting when the turnaround is coming. "Every time we mention it, [prices] get lower,'' said Mark Cruise, President and CEO of Vancouver-based Trevali Mining, a zinc-focused miner with assets in New Brunswick and Peru. If a flurry of recent forecasts is any indication, it may be a while yet before prices rebound. Expectations in the metals and bulk commodities sector continue to be dampened by four key factors, according to a Macquarie Capital Ltd. report, which was featured at the recent LME Base Metals Outlook conference in London, England. They are excess supply capacity, reduced demand growth forecasts, slowing global GDP growth and a lack of confidence in the ability of the Chinese government to manage its faltering economy. The pessimistic mood is also reflected in a report by Scotia Capital, which predicted that the average price for 9 of 10 key commodities tracked by its analysts would be lower this year than they were in 2014. The sole exception was uranium, which it expects to average US $38 a pound this year, up from $33 in 2014. Still, a Resource World investigation into the prospects for a suite of 17 commodities reveals that there is room for optimism in some key areas. Zinc, for example, is expected to benefit from a supply deficit and recent production cuts announced by Glencore, the Swiss metals trading giant. So too is lead. A select group of so-called "battery metals'' may also get a lift as US electric vehicle giant Tesla Ltd. moves to source feed for its gigafactory which is currently under construction in Nevada. It is worth noting here that Vancouver-based Pure Energy Minerals Ltd. saw its stock price jump in mid-September on the news that it has agreed to supply Tesla with lithium hydroxide from a lith- ium brine project in Clayton Valley, Nevada. The forecasts presented below are based on forecasts in research reports by Deutche Bank, Commerzbank, Scotia Capital, Macquarie Ltd., Dundee Global Investment Management Inc., Casey Research as well as comments by executives from Trevali Mining, Wellgreen Platinum, Commerce Resources, Teck Resources, Taseko Mines Ltd., and Global Energy Metals Corp. Prices are in US dollars. golD It is fair to say that gold has been a big disappointment this year. When the yellow metal hit $1,057.40/oz on November 27, 2015 Commodities OUTLOOK 2016