Issue link: http://resourceworld.uberflip.com/i/661612
A P R I L / M A Y 2 0 1 6 www.resourceworld.com 23 at t h e m a r k e t R o d n e y B l a k e T here's a famous ballad: What a difference a day makes. Or in the case of the TSX Venture Exchange – What a difference six-weeks makes. As little as six-weeks ago I wrote in my last column that if the Venture Exchange could hold and rise above the new record closing low of 474 it set on January 20 then it would indicate that the start the new bull market in resources might be upon us. Now, fast forward to March 11 and the Venture Exchange closed at a new seven-month high of 576 – so the new bull market must clearly be on its way. Or is it? Let's take this one step at a time. Short term, (and it feels good to be right for a change), the new bull market speaks for itself as the Venture Exchange is up some 20% from its January low. Longer term, over the next quarter or two, similar moves will be needed to confirm the bull. And while I feel the bull market will continue, recent history dictates that some caution is advised. If you look at a long-term chart of the Venture Exchange you can see that since the market high of about 2,400 in March, 2011 the bear market of the past five years was driven by a number of large descending steps that were countered by small assenting relief rallies that were again followed by more large descending steps that eventually dropped the Venture down to the record low we experienced in January. Now that pattern seems to be changing as for the first time since the bear began we've just had an ascending market (474-576) that was twice the magnitude of the last descending step (525-474). As sure as spring follows winter, every bull market, whether short or long-term, has corrections. In recent years, the Venture Exchange, led by the price of gold bullion, has tended to peak in March, (in what some call 'the curse' of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) mining conference in Toronto), and then correct until about late summer. The key con- firmation of the bull market going forward will be to see if the magnitude of the next correction is less than the up-leg we've just experienced. If the next pullback is relatively small and the market consolidates and rallies again to new highs, then we can probably confirm that the long term bull market is here. I'm pretty sure that is, but let's be a little cautious and – take it one step at a time. n Rodney Blake is an Investment Advisors with Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, a division of Canaccord Genuity Corp, Member- Canadian Investor Protection Fund. The information contained in this article is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does Rodney Blake, Canaccord Genuity Corp, or its subsidiaries, or affiliated companies, assume any liability. This information is current as of the date appearing in this article, we do not assume any obligation to update the information or advise on further developments relat- ing to these securities. This article should not be considered personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Canaccord Genuity and holdings of its respective directors, officers and employees and their associations, from time to time may buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Canaccord Genuity Corp. He can be reached at 604- 643-7567 or rod.blake@canaccord.com One step at a time • Genesis has a strong geological team with a discovery track record • Gold focus in Canada • Chevrier Gold deposit has potential for resource expansion TSX.V: GIS www.genesismetalscorp.com